Our principles
An Ibovespa preview is only worth something if you can check when it’s wrong.
Why we wrote this
Brazil now has more than 5 million individual investors on B3, and most get their information from videos, social media and search. At the same time, one in three Brazilians reported a financial scam attempt in 2025. Market numbers are everywhere — but they almost never come with a record of how often they were right.
Up or Down BR publishes an estimate of how the Ibovespa is likely to open. Before asking for your attention, we want to be clear about what we promise, what we don’t do, and where you can check everything.
What we protect
- Your money. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. The decision is always yours.
- Your time. What matters for the open, on one screen, before 10 a.m.
- Your trust. We show how wrong we were, every day, without hiding the bad days.
Three principles
- We say what we know — and what we don’tAn estimate is a probability, not a certainty. So we show the preview as an estimate, flag when data is delayed or the calendar hasn’t been verified, and never talk about "guarantees," "sure signals" or "easy money."
- When you need itThe Brazilian market is closed 17 hours a day and all weekend, but the world keeps moving. We update the preview every few minutes through the night and the weekend, and publish a news story of the day every day, including Saturdays, Sundays and holidays.
- With public proofEvery forecast becomes a record. On the Accuracy page, we show each day’s error — up or down — over recent weeks and months, with the hit rule written next to it. If we miss badly, you’ll see it.
How each part of the site delivers on this
| Area | We say what we know | When you need it | Public proof |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa preview | Shown as an estimate, with warnings when data is delayed | Updated all night and over the weekend | Every day goes into the Accuracy page |
| Accuracy | The hit rule is written on the page | Updated every trading session | Each day’s error, bad days included |
| News | One story a day, with sources listed | Every day, in the evening | Each story has its own dated page |
| Indicators | Show direction since the close, recommend nothing | Live through the night | The reference point (B3 close) is on screen |
| Top Picks | A screen based on public formulas, not a recommendation | Every Monday, before the open | Each pick’s performance compared with the Ibovespa |
| Methodology Lab | We summarize research in our own words and link the original | One note a week | Full references in every note |
What we don’t do
- We don’t recommend buying or selling any asset.
- We don’t promise returns or "sure-fire signals."
- We don’t sell signals, courses or paid groups.
- We don’t ask for sign-up, login or personal data to see the preview or vote.
How we work
Who we are. Up or Down BR is an independent project.
How we do it. The preview comes from our own quantitative model, which runs automatically. We don’t disclose the model’s details — but we publish each day’s result on the Accuracy page. The news story of the day summarizes reporting from Brazilian outlets, always with sources listed. Top Picks and Methodology Lab notes are reviewed before they are published.
Why we do it. Because the market keeps moving while B3 sleeps, and investors deserve a clear preview — one that is honest about its own mistakes.