ACCURACY
How close did we get?
Average absolute error of our published forecast versus the IBOV move 10 minutes after the open.
- Hit (right direction, or inside the band)
- Miss
- ±0.20%p band
Above 0: our forecast was higher than the actual move. Below 0: lower.
LAST 5 SESSIONSHits 3 / 4
| Date | Our forecast | Absolute error | Hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | +0.34% | after 10:10 | — |
| 11/06 | −0.06% | 0.05%p | ✓ |
| 11/05 | +0.46% | 0.64%p | ✗ |
| 11/04 | +1.20% | 0.40%p | ✓ |
| 11/03 | −0.57% | 0.89%p | ✓ |
Hit: right direction (even if the gap is more than 0.20%p), or wrong direction but within 0.20%p. Miss: wrong direction by more than 0.20%p.
How to read. Absolute error is the gap between our forecast and the actual move, in percentage points (forecast +0.30%, actual +0.50% → 0.20%p). A hit means we got the direction right, or missed by 0.20%p or less. Averages appear once half of the period has data. The chart shows the signed error (our forecast minus the actual move) for every session of the selected period: green dots are hits, red dots are misses, and the shaded band marks ±0.20%p. Not investment advice.