Taesa: a toll road for electricity, priced 34% under Barsi's ceiling
TAEE11Taesa
Power transmissionFormula: Luiz Barsi · Price R$ 39.59 (Friday close)Taesa gets paid to keep Brazil's power lines available, rain or shine, and has paid out 9.2% a year on average. Barsi's 6% rule would pay up to R$ 60.22. It closed at R$ 39.59.
The thesis
Most power companies live with the weather and energy prices. Taesa mostly doesn't: it earns a fixed, inflation-adjusted fee for keeping high-voltage lines available, about as close to a bond as the Ibovespa gets. Barsi's 6% rule puts its ceiling at R$ 60.22; it closed Friday at R$ 39.59. The market sees the 9.2% yield. What it is discounting is the debt and a profit line that has been shrinking.
What the company does
Taesa runs about 10,000 km of transmission lines in 18 states. Each concession has a yearly revenue set in its contract (RAP), adjusted for inflation and paid for availability, not for how much power flows. Cemig is the largest shareholder and Colombia's ISA the second. The model is simple: win or acquire a concession, keep the lines up, pay out the cash.
Why the formula picked it
Electricity is the E in BESST. Taesa made a profit and paid dividends in each of the last five years, with ROE of 20.1% and a 76.6% payout, inside the 95% cap for transmission. Five companies passed; Taesa had the deepest discount, ahead of Cemig, its own largest shareholder.
Bear case
Net debt is about 3.7× EBITDA, the heaviest load among this week's four. Profit fell about 6.9% a year over five years while revenue grew 5.4% a year, so more of each real goes to interest and costs. A P/B of 1.69 is a premium for a company whose profit isn't growing, and with the Selic at 13.75% a 9% yield has real competition.
What would break the story
ROE under 12%, payout under 30%, a year without profit or dividends, or a price above R$ 60.22 ends it. Outside the formula: debt climbing further, or old concessions ending without new ones to replace them.
Since the screen picked it
Start: October 30, 2026 · R$ 39.59
| TAEE11 | Ibovespa | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| So far | First update on the next Saturday | ||
| 3 months | On January 30, 2027 | ||
| 6 months | On April 30, 2027 | ||
| 9 months | On July 30, 2027 | ||
| 12 months | On October 30, 2027 | ||
Price change only: dividends are not included, in the stocks or in the benchmark. The Ibovespa is measured through BOVA11, the ETF that tracks it. Prices: B3 end of day. Updated every Saturday. Past results do not predict future ones.
All the numbers
Also passed: CMIG4, CPFE3, ISAE4
Sources for the company facts
Financial numbers: B3 closing prices (Friday) and CVM filings, computed by our screen.